?Joo “Zest” Sung-wook and Kang “Solar” Min-soo will clash on Saturday for the sixth time this year and the first time since Alpha X Series Special #23 on April 16, when Solar won 3-1. It marked his third head-to-head victory of 2022 and second consecutive, following a 3-2 win at Afreeca World 91 less than a week prior.

But even though Solar has won last two meetings with Zest, the esports betting sites have priced the two SCII players at the same odds, suggesting that there is no clear favourite. But we have to disagree with that and would argue that Solar should be priced much closer to +180.

He defeated Zest twice in April, but Zest has visibly improved and has lost just five games (19-5) since the start of May. Moreover, he is very efficient against Zerg players (67.44% win rate), whereas Solar hasn’t exactly impressed in ZvP matchups of late (56.36%).

We’re giving Zest at least a 60% chance of winning this bout, so we don’t have to think twice before taking his side at -120.48. The real dreamers might also consider a smaller wager on Zest to win 3-0 at +450.

?Hwang “KeeN” Kyu-seok and Park “Armani” Jin-hyuk last met way back in August 2021, when Armani claimed his sixth all-time head-to-head victory with 5-1. The 26-year-old was clearly the better player on the day, but it’s been 10 months since, so we wouldn’t put too much weight on that result.

Based on what we’ve seen from these two Korean StarCraft II pros of late, there isn’t much to separate them, and their position on the Korean ESL Pro Tour standings would confirm that – Armani is 17th with 280 points, while KeeN is ranked 20th with 260 points.

But even though they look evenly matched, there is one key stat we mustn’t overlook. KeeN’s career win rate into Zergs is at a solid 57.27%, but that figure has dropped to just 52% over the last 25 matches. On the other side, Armani has improved his career win rate against Protoss (51.99%) to 65.38% over his previous 26 outings.

His improvement in ZvP matchups doesn’t guarantee him success on Saturday. Still, with so little to separate KeeN and Armani, this game might be decided on the players’ effectiveness against the opponent’s race.

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