?G2 Esports might not make it to Atlanta, but they can at least count on getting a free win against Evil Geniuses on Friday. Perhaps it’s not fair to underestimate Evil Geniuses, but they gave us nothing to be excited about.

All North American LoL teams – including EG – have been playing exceptionally poorly this tournament, struggling even against teams that are not considered exceptionally strong. But most importantly, G2 Esports completely dismantled Evil Geniuses the last time they met, winning with a nearly 11k gold lead and 19-2 in kills.

There are no guarantees that G2 Esports will look as dominant on Friday, but we would much rather be on their side of this affair. Expecting G2 Esports to cover a 7.5-kill handicap isn’t too crazy, and we would also consider taking under towers and drakes, as this likely won’t be a very long match.

?We don’t expect Evil Geniuses to defeat G2 Esports, and their chances of taking down JD Gaming are significantly lower. As the latest LoL betting odds suggest, this is JD Gaming’s game to lose, but we don’t expect that to happen.

Evil Geniuses and JD Gaming last met on October 8, when JD Gaming won with 24-14 in kills and nearly 11k gold lead. It was a bit bloodier affair, but EG’s kill count is misleading as they haven’t done much in the match besides taking down a few T1 turrets.

Moreover, JD Gaming’s draft was a bit subpar, so assuming they prepare better for the rematch, we can safely say we’re in for a very one-sided affair.

?DWG KIA crushed G2 Esports in their first meeting at LoL Worlds 2022, closing out the game with a massive 18k gold lead and 17-7 in kills. It was a humiliating performance from the former European champions, but most of it had to do with their draft.

Picking Caitlyn-Lux is an extremely risky choice as you’re essentially counting on your bot lane to win, or else you’re playing 3v5. It didn’t work out for G2, so we can expect them to instead play around Rasmus “caPs” Borregaard Winther, which should give them a much better chance to upset the former LoL world champions.

Notably, DWG KIA are drafting poorly this tournament, so they definitely have some weaknesses to exploit. Moreover, they’re a reasonably slow team, so betting against them on the kill handicap market is usually a solid choice.

?G2 Esports are priced at +240 to defeat JD Gaming, suggesting that their chances to cause an upset are very low. However, considering what we saw in the first clash between the two teams, it’s not too crazy to believe that G2 Esports can pull it off. Furthermore, G2 might have won the furst meeting had they not suffered from a Darius ultimate bug.

Putting caPs on a carry mid laner and letting their bottom lane duo play weak side has proven to be a very effective strategy for G2 Esports in that match, and we can expect much of the same here. Yet you can still argue that JDG are a superior team – they do a lot more things than G2, but much better and more consistently.

JD Gaming should come out ahead, but the kill handicap line seems a bit too high for us to ignore, so we’ll side with G2 Esports to keep it within nine kills.

?Evil Geniuses had a relatively solid draft in their first meeting with DWG KIA, with Ezreal, Bard, and Hecarim as strong picks into DWG’s team composition. They even had their moments in the match, but all that didn’t matter as EG couldn’t match DWG KIA’s mid-late game.

Evil Geniuses’ biggest issue is their decision-making, besides being individually outmatched by all teams in Group B besides G2 Esports. In the first meeting, DWG KIA won by just four kills, but that’s not indicative of how well EG played but rather how DWG KIA like to play.

Since DWG KIA aren’t a very bloody team, we wouldn’t bet on them to cover the kill handicap. Instead, we like under 25.5 total kills.

?JD Gaming and DWG KIA played a very close match last Saturday, and throughout the whole game, it wasn’t clear which team would come out on top. But as it has become a standard in the current meta, a single late-game team fight was enough for JD Gaming to win – despite nearly losing a dragon soul.

DWG KIA lost the game, but it wasn’t like they were in a losing position, so there is a chance we might see them get their revenge on Friday. The Korean squad are good enough to compete with JD Gaming, although most will fall on their early game and how well they can handle JDG’s solid macro.

JD Gaming should be the favourites, but this bout is much closer to 50/50 than the latest LoL betting odds suggest. At +137, we have to side with DWG KIA again.

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?Bad News Eagles, formerly Team BLINK, enter this match as +175 underdogs, which isn’t too surprising considering we have yet to see them compete at this level of play, nor have they beaten any notable opponents since forming the team in February. However, that doesn’t mean they don’t have the tools to deal with Entropiq.

We have to remember that this is a best-of-one (Bo1) match, meaning upsets will be common, especially in games like this one where the underdogs field a lot of firepower. Moreover, Entropiq are not exactly a top-tier team, even though they produced a few solid results at ESL Pro League earlier this month.

Individually, Entropiq are stronger, but they don’t deserve to be priced as -250 favourites. This is the same team that lost against ECSTATIC (1-2 twice) and SAW (1-2), so it’s fair to question why esports betting sites are pricing them as such big favourites. Entropiq are still the most likely victors, but the value is with Bad News Eagles.

?HEET and SINNERS Esports will clash on Thursday for the first time since Thunderpick Bitcoin Series 2022 in February, when HEET won (2-1) with 13-16 on Inferno, 28-26 on Vertigo, and 19-17 on Nuke. As the final score suggests, that match was extremely close and could have easily ended the other way.

SINNERS played well against HEET in their most recent meeting, and they were just a couple of rounds away from walking away from the series with a 2-0 sweep, so it doesn’t seem fair for the CS:GO betting sites to price them as +125 outsiders.

Admittedly, HEET have shown better form over their last five outings (5-0) than SINNERS (3-2), but they’ve faced much weaker opponents in that stretch. A bet on SINNERS to win is appealing, but we prefer overs (27.5) at even money.

?ENCE made the finals of ESL Pro League Season 15 just over a week ago and enter the European RMR as one of the hottest teams. However, while ENCE have achieved the unthinkable in Germany, we would take their success with a grain of salt.

With all due respect, ENCE had a very easy road to the finals, mainly because all of the top CS:GO teams underperformed. They still deserve recognition for their accomplishment, but we don’t believe ENCE are as good as they might seem.

Team Spirit have not been too active of late. They participated in the European RMR qualifiers in March, and before that they won Malta Vibes Knockout Series #6 – way back in February. Moreover, the Russians don’t have a single official match on their record over the last month, so they might be a bit rusty.

Still, we would not sleep on Spirit, who have a roster more than capable of going toe-to-toe with ENCE. We don’t expect to see Spirit upset ENCE, but we don’t expect a complete blowout either.

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